What this calculator does
The calculator shows you what your starting capital and your monthly savings turn into over the years. You see the final capital, and you also see how much of it you paid in yourself and how much the interest contributed. This split is the interesting part. For a fixed target amount, the millionaire calculator shows you when you will reach it. If the target year is fixed as well, use the savings-to-a-million calculator instead.
How I calculate it
The calculation consists of one step that repeats every month.
Step 1: Convert the annual rate into a monthly rate. If you expect 6% a year, that is not simply 0.5% a month. Because of compounding, twelve months at 0.5% each give 6.17% a year, which is more than you entered. That is why I convert geometrically. 6% a year becomes 0.4868% a month. Twelve such months give exactly 6%.
This sounds like nitpicking, but over long periods it makes a difference of several thousand dollars. Many calculators online use the simple approximation and therefore show you a result that is slightly too rosy.
Step 2: Apply interest to the existing capital. In the first month that is $10,000, which grows by 0.4868%. That is $48.68 in interest. Your capital stands at $10,048.68.
Step 3: Add the monthly savings. At the end of the month, $250 is added. You are at $10,298.68.
Step 4: Repeat. In the second month, interest is earned on $10,298.68, no longer on the original $10,000. That is compound interest. Then another $250 is added.
After 20 years, that is 240 repetitions, you are at $145,431.01. Of that, you paid in $70,000, namely $10,000 starting capital plus 240 times $250. The remaining $75,431.01 is interest.
This is the point where the calculation gets interesting. After 20 years, more money comes from interest than from your own payments. After 30 years it is $301,063.15, of which $100,000 was paid in and $201,063.15 is interest. The interest share has more than doubled in ten years, although you did not save a single dollar more per month.
Why the last years bring the most
Many people stop saving because it hardly seems worth it in the first years. After five years, in this example you are at $30,753.70, of which $25,000 was paid in. Interest makes up $5,753.70, not even a fifth.
The reason is simple. Interest is earned on what is already there. In the first years there is little there. After twenty years, $145,431.01 is working for you, and 6% on that is $8,725.86 in the next year alone. That is almost three times what you pay in yourself that year.
This leads to the uncomfortable truth of this calculation. The most valuable factor is time, and you cannot buy more of it later. If you start ten years later, you have to roughly double your monthly savings to end up at the same point.
What is often overlooked
Tax is missing from every gross calculation. The $75,431.01 of interest from the example is a figure before taxes. How price gains and distributions are taxed depends on the country you live in, and so does the question of whether tax is due every year or only when you sell. Check the rules where you live, or ask a tax advisor.
Costs act like a negative return. A management fee of 0.5% a year sounds harmless. But it lowers the return from 6% to 5.5%, and over 30 years that costs $28,492.23. You can see how much costs matter in the ETF savings plan calculator.
The average return hides the order of returns. The calculator assumes the same interest rate every year. Reality fluctuates. In the accumulation phase this is less dramatic, because you buy more cheaply in bad years. In the withdrawal phase it is the other way round. There, early years with losses can shrink the capital permanently.
Inflation eats part of it. $145,431.01 in 20 years feels like a lot today. At 2% inflation, it corresponds to $97,870.90 in today’s purchasing power. If you want to calculate in today’s purchasing power, subtract the expected inflation from the return and use the difference, in this case 4%.
How to use the calculator sensibly
Calculate three versions instead of one. An optimistic one at 8%, a middle one at 6% and a cautious one at 4%. Over 20 years this gives $188,859.34, $145,431.01 and $112,871.66. The range of $75,987.68 shows you how much the end result depends on an assumption nobody knows.
Then adjust the monthly savings instead of the return. You cannot control the return, but you can control your monthly savings. In this example, $50 more a month brings an extra $22,671.93 over 20 years. That is more than a difference of one percentage point in return makes, and it is in your hands.
And plan your monthly savings so that you can keep them up even in a bad year. A savings plan you suspend after three years because it was too ambitious brings less than a smaller amount that runs for thirty years.